NOAA forecasts smaller algal blooms in 2020

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its weekly Harmful Algal Bloom Forecast for Lake Erie Wednesday.

NOAA is still calling for a severity of about 3-5 out of 10 this year—smaller than last year's 7.5 rating.

So far, northwest Ohio has only had one heavy rain event of more than an inch in the last couple months, limiting the bioavailable phosphorus in Lake Erie which produces the algae blooms.

"If we continue to see dry weather, we're going to continue to see these projections of a smaller, low-severity bloom in terms of size," said Dr. Timothy Davis, an associate professor of biological sciences at Bowling Green State University.

Although the size of the bloom should be smaller this year, Davis says we still need to be cautious as the algae that does form could still be very toxic.

"It's not toxicity, so even though it's a 3-5 on the severity index it can still be dangerous because it still produces the toxins that caused the 2014 Toledo water crisis and the severity index does not cover how toxic the bloom will be."

Researchers were out on the lake this week and are beginning to see colonies of the algae bacteria in the water.

"We are starting to see a bloom develop in Sandusky Bay. Bowling Green State University was out on Monday and there were reports of a bloom and scums developing in Sandusky Bay.”

This is the normal time frame researchers notice blooms in the warmer Sandusky Bay, but we still have about a month until algae develops in the main lake.

"We typically won't see the blooms out in western Lake Erie, the open waters, really start to get going until later in July."

This is good news for those hoping to enjoy Lake Erie over the Fourth of July holiday, but Davis reminds people to stay vigilant and to stay out of the lake if the water looks green.

Something new for NOAA this year is that it'll be issuing a five-day animated bloom position forecast to help those along the lake better understand where the blooms might be heading in the future.