Warm Gulf waters could mean stronger storms, early animal moves, algae blooms

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are running on the high side this year, which could trigger anything from afternoon thunderstorms to early animal migrations.

Various weather outlets say water temperatures are hovering around 80 degrees near Fort Myers Beach. That's high for March, enough to lay the ground for a tropical storm with hurricane season still three months away.

"It is one of the factors in tropical development," said Jennifer Hubbard, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Ruskin, which covers the Fort Myers-Cape Coral area. "You need water temperatures over 80 degrees. It's one of the ingredients you need."

That's not to say that a tropical storm will be forming soon, although they have formed during every month of the year.

"It's like salt," Hubbard said. "You have to have the other ingredients for it to become alfredo. But it also effects the coastal temperatures, especially if we have an onshore breeze."

Warmer water affects fog, animal movements

Warmer water temperatures this time of year can also lead to more persistent sea fog.

"Sea fog is a lot more stable than land fog," Hubbard said. "So it can persist for days, where land fog typically forms in the night hours and within an hour or two of sunrise it burns off with the mixing of the air."

Animals also respond seasonally to temperatures changes, not calendars. So anything from an early start to the sea turtle nesting season to manatees along the coast during the winter is possible.

"With the mild winter some animals have taken to the coast a bit earlier than most years," said Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission spokeswoman Carli Segelson. "But in general, their migratory patterns and behavior will be typical (this year), and we will begin to see an increase in (manatee) movement as we continue through March and into the spring season."

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More storms, more algae blooms possible with warmer water

Calusa Waterkeeper Emeritus John Cassani said he worries the warmer waters may fuel storms later this year, and that the warmer temperatures will release nutrients along the coast.

"More intense storms, more frequent and longer lasting algae blooms," Cassani said when asked what warmer weather during the winter and spring can mean to Southwest Florida. "One of the other things that can be important is as water temperatures increases, the amount of oxygen water holds goes down. So that can be an issue in some of the tidal creeks."

Water temperatures likely won't go down until next winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

The NOAA 90-day outlook for this region shows above-average temperatures between now and June1, the start of the hurricane season.

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